THE WIRE

Passing Efficiency Emerges as Heisman Contenders Battle for Ballot

Fourteen deskSideline

30 October 2026

The race for the 2023 Heisman Trophy is entering its final stretch, and passing efficiency has emerged as the dominant metric separating the top quarterbacks from the field. In a development that reflects how advanced statistics are reshaping college football evaluation, the Heisman Trust this year announced a partnership with Pro Football Focus (PFF) to enhance the fan voting process and performance analytics for all positions.

According to an October 30 statement on Heisman.com, the PFF collaboration will provide new tools for fans to access and evaluate key statistics, bringing greater transparency and nuance to the ballot process. Concurrently, the organization has modified its fan vote model to weigh ballots cast later in the year more heavily, incentivizing voters to consider how players perform as the season progresses towards conference championships and bowl implications.

Fans have always had a say in the Heisman election – a single fan ballot was first included in the official tabulations in 1999. But in recent years, more attention has been paid to late-season momentum. The Trust published detailed figures in 2017 showing that 89% of voter ballots were submitted after the final games of the regular season. Fans will not be the only part of the process to weigh late-season performance: The new fan vote model, which went live on October 30, uses a season-long weighted algorithm that puts increasing emphasis on November ballots.

As that later pattern begins to play out, passing efficiency is separating contenders more than ever. Joe Burrow led all quarterbacks with a 201.47 pass efficiency rating for his Heisman-winning 2019 season, narrowly outpacing breakout stars from recent Heisman classes. Kyler Murray led the 2018 field with 205.72, followed by Baker Mayfield with 203.76 in 2017 and Tua Tagovailoa with 199.44 in 2018. In 2022, CJ Stroud achieved a notable 177.66 pass efficiency mark, which looks increasingly relevant if he is still in the conversation in Week 9.

PFF, one of the publications using the Heisman-specific metrics to evaluate passers, ranks Caleb Williams atop the leaderboard with a 92.5 PFF grade and a 7.2% completion percentage over expectation, according to a ranking released on October 29. The 92.5 grade places Williams ahead of even top Heisman candidates from past years. His 28 touchdown passes against just one interception mark him as an elite option under pressure: 68% of his passes are completed.

Saturday Down South's analysis points to a range of considerations that are affecting final evaluations.

The publication, which conducted a detailed study of production, ranked Caleb Williams first, Drake Maye second, Bo Nix third, and Michael Penix Jr. fourth among top passers – a list that underscored efficiency metrics. Arriving at No. 1 for the week, Williams had thrown for 338 yards and three touchdowns on 27 pass attempts against Colorado. And in the Oregon win, Penix showcased an average depth of target of over 12 yards, putting him in the elite group in CPOE, EPA dropbacks, and passing success rate. Jayden Daniels, ranking No. 6 in Saturday Down South's tally, excels in EPA per dropback and deep-ball CPOE, the publication noted.

As those performance metrics increasingly drive fan interest and attention, the Heisman voting process is reacting to reflect the new focus. The current structure, according to the Trust's 2023 press packet, still relies on a small number of voters: 870 media personnel, 59 former Heisman winners, and one fan ballot (supplemented by the season-long weighted model). With the entire process shifting toward modernized metrics and frequent voting, the Heisman Trophy race looks like a close battle, with superfans and on-the-ground scouts joining the analytics professionals in identifying which candidates are ready to win this season.